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2023 Oscar Best Actor Predictions

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

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UPDATED: August 13, 2022

2023 Oscar Predictions:
best actor

Commentary on award predictions:

A few weeks after the start of the fall festival circuit where we will see “The Whale” with Brendan Fraser, “The Son” with Hugh Jackman and “White Noise” with Adam Driver. Pundits and critics are already well aware that Austin Butler from “Elvis”, Bill Nighy from “Living” and possibly Tom Cruise from “Top Gun: Maverick” will be in the discussion.

Transformational performances can take center stage with the likes of Butler and Fraser from their films as they play real-life people.

“The Inspection” was named the closing film of the New York Film Festival, and in between is considered an award-worthy performance by Jeremy Pope, and then there’s a potential double dose of Christian Bale this year with Scott Cooper’s “The Inspection.” Pale Blue Eye” and David O. Russell’s “Amsterdam.”

Many more to come.

Read more: of diversity Reward circuit oscar Prediction Hub

Check out the latest prediction rankings below.

Read more: of diversity The awards circuit is the Emmys prediction hub

2022 category winners: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)


All award contenders and rankings:

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There is no bill in ‘Living’
Ross Ferguson

And the predicted nominees are:
rank name movie the distributor
1 Hugh Jackman “the boy” Sony Pictures Classics
Peter’s busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into chaos when his ex-wife Kate meets their teenage son Nicholas.
2 Brendan Fraser “the whale” A24
An estranged English teacher suffering from severe obesity tries to reconnect with her estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption.
3 no bill “alive” Sony Pictures Classics
An English language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952) set in 1950s London.
4 Daniel Jimenez Cacho “The Bardo (or the False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico.
5 Austin Butler “elvis” Warner Bros
A biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complicated relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
next line
6 Adam Driver “white noise” Netflix
“White Noise” dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world.
7 Christian Bale “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studio
Set in the 30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most heinous plots in American history.
8 Song Kang-ho “broker” the neon
Boxes are left for people to drop off their unwanted babies anonymously
9 Tom Cruise “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures
After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is wherever he is, pushing the envelope as a daring test pilot and eschewing the rank advancements that would have grounded him.
10 Jeremy Pope “inspection” A24
Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton.
Other top-tier competitors
11 Colin Farrell “Bansy of Inishrin” Searchlight image
12 Christian Bale “Pale Blue Eyes” Netflix
13 Colin Firth “Empire of Light” Searchlight image
14 Harry Styles* “My Police” Amazon Studios
15 Diego Calva “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
16 Winston Duke* “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
17 Jim Parsons “Spoiler Alert: Hero Dies” Focus feature
18 Paul Mescal “After the Sun” A24
19 Eddie Redmayne “good nurse” Netflix
20 Adam Sandler “Hurry” Netflix
Also debate
21 Patton Oswalt “I love my father” Magnolia photo
22 Tom Hanks “A Man Named Otto” Sony Pictures
23 Harris Dickinson “Triangle of Sorrows” the neon
24 Billy Eichner “Bros” Universal Pictures
25 Mehndi Bajestani “Holy Spider” Utopia
26 Ewan McGregor* “Raymond and Ray” Apple Original Films
27 Daniel Craig “Glass Onion: A Knife Out Mystery” Netflix
28 Calvin Harrison Jr “Chevalier” Searchlight image
29 Mark Rylance “The Phantom of the Open” Sony Pictures Classics
30 Park Hae-il “Decision to Quit” the movie
Other reward possibilities
31 Daniel Kaluuya “no” Universal Pictures
32 Sam Worthington “Avatar: Waterway” 20th Century Studio
33 Darryl McCormack “Good luck to you, Leo Grande.” Searchlight image
34 Caleb Landry Jones “nitram” IFC Films
35 Ricardo Darin “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios
36 Viggo Mortensen “Future Crime” the neon
37 Zac Efron “The Greatest Bear Run” Apple Original Films
38 Cooper Rife “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films
39 Jack O’Connell “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix
40 Ben Kingsley “Dallyland” No US distribution
Unranked Potential Contenders
Aaron Pierre* “brother” No US distribution
Adam Sandler “Hurry” Netflix
Adam Sandler “spaceship” Netflix
Alexander Skarsgård “The Northman” Focus feature
Antonio Banderas “Official Competition” IFC Films
Austin Butler “elvis” Warner Bros.
Ben Kingsley “Dallyland” No US distribution
Benedict Cumberbatch “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” Marvel Studios
no bill “alive” Sony Pictures Classics
Billy Eichner “Bros” Universal Pictures
Brad Pitt “Bullet Train” Sony Pictures
brad pitt* “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
Brendan Fraser “the whale” A24
Brendan Gleeson* “Bansy of Inishrin” Searchlight image
Brian Cox “Prisoner’s Daughter” No US distribution
Caleb Landry Jones “nitram” IFC Films
Casey Affleck “Dream Wild” No US distribution
Channing Tatum “dog” Releasing by MGM/United Artists
Chris Evans “The Gray Man” Netflix
Chris Evans “light years” Pixar
Chris Hemsworth “Thor: Love and Thunder” Marvel Studios
Christian Bale “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studio
Christian Bale “Pale Blue Eyes” Netflix
Colin Farrell “After Yang” A24
Colin Farrell “Bansy of Inishrin” Searchlight image
Colin Firth* “Empire of Light” Searchlight image
Cooper Rife “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films
Daniel Craig “Glass Onion: A Knife Out Mystery” Netflix
Daniel Jimenez Cacho “The Bardo (or the False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
Daniel Kaluuya “no” Universal Pictures
Darryl McCormack “Good luck to you, Leo Grande.” Searchlight image
David Earl “Brian and Charles” Focus feature
Diego Calva “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
Dwayne Johnson “Black Adam” Warner Bros
Eddie Redmayne “good nurse” Netflix
Eden Dumbrin “off” A24
Elio Germano “Il Signore Delle Formiche” No US distribution
Ethan Hawke* “Raymond and Ray” Apple Original Films
Ewan McGregor* “Raymond and Ray” Apple Original Films
Finn Wolfhard “When You Finish Saving the World” A24
Gabriel Lapel “The Fablemans” Universal Pictures
George Clooney “Ticket to Heaven” Universal Pictures
Geza Rohrig “The Way of the Wind” No US distribution
Gregory Mann “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” Netflix
Harris Dickinson “Triangle of Sorrows” the neon
Harry Styles “My Police” Amazon Studios
Hugh Jackman “the boy” Sony Pictures Classics
Idris Elba “Three Thousand Years of Desire” Releasing by MGM/United Artists
Jack O’Connell “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix
Jake Gyllenhaal “Ambulance” Universal Pictures
Jalin Hall* “until” Releasing by Orion/United Artists
Ji-Min Park “Go back to Seoul” Sony Pictures Classics
Jim Parsons “Spoiler Alert: Hero Dies” Focus feature
Joe Coy “Easter Sunday” Universal Pictures
Joel Edgerton “guest” Transmission Films
Joshua Boone* “A Jazzman’s Blues” Netflix
Justin Chatwin “The Walk” Vertical entertainment
Calvin Harrison Jr “Chevalier” Searchlight image
Kevin Kline “good house” Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
Lamar Johnson* “brother” No US distribution
Marine Grigor “RMN” IFC Films
Mark Rylance “The Phantom of the Open” Sony Pictures Classics
Matthias Schweifer “Swimmer” Netflix
Mehndi Bajestani “Holy Spider” Utopia
Michael Banks Repetta “Armageddon Time” Focus feature
NT Rama Rao Jr “rrr” Raftar Creations
Nicholas Hoult “list” Searchlight image
Nicolas Cage “Butcher’s Crossing” Soap Films
Nicolas Cage “The Intolerable Weight of Enormous Genius” Lionsgate
Wayne Teague “The Montana Story” Bleecker Street
Park Hae-il “Decision to Quit” the movie
Pascal Gregory “a beautiful morning” Sony Pictures Classics
Patton Oswalt “I love my father” Magnolia photo
Paul Mescal “After the Sun” A24
Ralph Fiennes “sorry” Roadside attractions
Ralph Fiennes* “list” Searchlight image
Ricardo Darin “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios
RJ Siler “emergency” Amazon Studios
Robert Pattinson “Batman” Warner Bros.
Ryan Gosling “The Gray Man” Netflix
Sam Rockwell “See how they run” Searchlight image
Sam Worthington “Avatar: Waterway” 20th Century Studio
Sebastian Maniscalco “About My Father” Lionsgate
Song Kang-ho “broker” the neon
Sope Dirisu “Mr. Malcolm’s List” Bleecker Street
Sterling K. Brown “Honk for Jesus. save your soul” Universal Pictures
Steve Coogan* “The Lost King” Warner Bros.
Taj Atwal “What does love have to do with it?” No US distribution
Tim Roth “Resurrection” IFC Films
Timothee Chalamet “bones and all” Releasing by MGM/United Artists
Tom Burke “surprise” Netflix
Tom Cruise “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures
Tom Hanks “A Man Named Otto” Sony Pictures
Viggo Mortensen “Future Crime” the neon
Vincent Lyndon “Both Sides of the Blade” IFC Films
The Wes Study “Love Song” Bleecker Street
Will Ferrell “Enthusiastic” Apple Original Films
Will Smith “liberation” Apple Original Films
Winston Duke* “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Zac Efron “The Greatest Bear Run” Apple Original Films
Zachary Levy “Shazam! Wrath of the Gods” Warner Bros.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

About the Academy Awards (Oscars).

The Still for saleAlso known as the Oscars, the Hollywood film industry’s most prestigious artistic award. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented among about 10,000 members. The branches are Actor, Associate, Casting Director, Cinematographer, Costume Designer, Director, Documentary, Executive, Film Editor, Makeup and Hair Stylist, Marketing and Public Relations, Member-at-Large, Member-at-Large (Artists’ Representative), Music. , producer, production design, short film and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writer.

  • The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theater and televised live Sunday, March 12, 2022 on ABC

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