April 2, 2023

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Music earnings could fall by 25% in 2020, but the long-term outlook is good – variety

3 min read

Investment giant Goldman Sachs, one of the great cheerleaders for the renaissance of the music industry and his predictions did not contribute much to the recent success of the industry – অংশ 33.3 billion worth of sales as part of the universal music group not 10% from Tencent

However, the coronavirus epidemic has blown the air among many earlier pink speculations for the music industry, largely due to the virtual shutdown of the live-entertainment business. Although Goldman’s latest “Air Music of the Year” report showed a 25% drop in world music revenue in 2020 – and revenue for the live industry sank 5% this year to $ 7 billion – it also expects a “strong return” to the live sector in 2021 and beyond. The music business grew at an average of 6%, nearly doubling to দাঁড়িয়ে 142 billion by 2030.

The epidemic led companies to significantly lower their estimates to $ 57.5 billion in 2020 – a nearly 30% drop from its original forecast and a disappointingly lower than $ 75 billion in 2019. It dropped its publishing forecast by 5% (6 6 billion) and recorded music at 8% (about বিল 21 billion).

However, the 80-page report contains a lot of optimism – or less long-term pessimism than expected –

Although it plans streaming to maintain its 18% annual growth, the recorded-music is expected to grow only 3% due to the sharp, epidemic-driven drop in physical and licensing earnings. It expects record labels from streaming platforms to be the primary beneficiaries of continued streaming growth based on their significant royalties (52-58%). The report projects that Spotify will hold its top spot, but by 2030 Apple Music will drop to fourth place behind Tencent Music and Amazon.

“Overall, we predict that the streaming market will grow at a rate of 12%,” the report said, adding that the compound annual growth rate from 1990 to 2030 would reach $ 5 billion by 2030.

Music publishing, with its diverse revenue stream, is expected to grow 3.5% in 2020 and beyond and continue to grow for decades.

The report points to several key beneficiaries of the increase – major Universal Music owner Viveki, Tencent Music, YouTube / Google Parent Alphabet – and a large company with a negative impact: Sirius, which is not only the parent radio network but also its parent Liberty Media. -Entertainment company Live Nation is 34% owned, which is Epidemic Lock The price has decreased since the start of auna.

It projects with significantly preserved optimism and anticipation of growth in the live-music industry. “Although we believe that once the situation has returned to normal, fans will be interested in returning directly to ceremonies, concerts and festivals,” it said, adding that “the time and speed of recovery will largely depend on social norms, distance and Huge crowds around the world.

In the medium to long term, it will return to-39 billion with an annual growth rate of 4-5% by 2000 (compared to ৮ 26 billion in 2016) as one thousand years of demand and supply lists benefit from living events. ‘Greater demand for live events, new monetization opportunities through live streaming, Tiki “Dependence on sales, merchandise and sponsorships and income on the income of artists”

The degree to which it is passed is a very open question, when one considers how many companies cannot withstand this recession, and how many industries, which saw the music industry for more than a decade in 2015, have returned to growth after the dildo? It halved in size in 2000.

However, the report concludes, “Overall, we believe that the long-term growth outlook for the industry remains intact, driven by the growing demand for funding flows, the growing demand for music content and live events, and new licensing opportunities (such as Tiktok). “

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